How Much Does HVAC Replacement Cost?

Updated August 19, 2026 · every figure is cited to a public source below

The two independent cost datasets agree closely on the core project: Angi puts a full HVAC replacement at $7,500 on average, typically $5,000–$12,500 and up to $22,000 with new ductwork and add-ons; HomeGuide independently lands at an $8,000 average, $5,000–$11,000 for a change-out and $7,000–$16,000 with ductwork.^[1][2]

What that means in practice: the equipment swap itself is fairly predictable — the four-figure swings live in three decisions that most quotes bury: whether your ductwork gets touched, which efficiency tier you buy, and whether your electrical panel can feed the new system. Each is quantified below.

Typical costs at a glance

Full system replacementtypically $5,000–$12,500; to $22,000 with ductwork and add-ons: $7,500 average^[1]
Same question, independent dataset$5,000–$11,000 change-out; $7,000–$16,000 with ductwork: $8,000 average^[2]
Per square foot2,000 sq ft house ≈ $6,000–$12,000: $3–$6^[2]
Central AC aloneFixr’s independent average: $6,000: $3,900–$7,900^[1][5]
Gas furnace alone: $3,800–$10,000^[1]
Heat pumpHomeGuide: $3,800–$8,200; manufacturer guides run higher: $4,200–$7,600^[1][2]
Mini-split, single zonemulti-zone systems $6,500–$15,000+: $2,500–$6,000^[3]
Labor$1,000–$3,000 per install: $75–$150 /hr^[2]

The ductwork question is half the quote

Published ductwork numbers disagree more than any other line in this library, and the reason is scope: Angi prices typical duct runs at $1,000–$2,700 for a 1,000-sq-ft system, HomeGuide puts replacement at $1,400–$5,600, and Fixr’s national average — $9,293, reaching past $17,000 — describes full whole-house sheet-metal jobs. None of them is wrong; they’re different projects. A bid that says “ductwork as needed” without footage and material has left the biggest variable open.^[1][2][6]

Efficiency tier is a $3,000–$5,000 decision

Trane’s own 2026 national pricing guide shows the jump plainly: its base 15-SEER AC installs at $6,568–$8,544 while its premium 20-SEER variable-speed tier runs $11,525–$13,669 — about $5,000 between base and best from one manufacturer. Angi generalizes it: each step up in efficiency rating costs roughly $350–$1,500 more. Higher tiers pay back through utility bills, but only over years — match the tier to how long you’ll own the house, not to the brochure.^[7][1]

Manufacturer guides also run structurally higher than marketplace databases — Trane quotes heat pumps at $7,369–$15,608 and Carrier at $6,000–$25,000, against Angi’s $4,200–$7,600 marketplace range. If your bids all come from single-brand dealers, that’s the gap you’re seeing.^[7][8][1]

What makes the price jump

Beyond ductwork and tier, the quantified drivers:

Electrical panel capacity: heat pumps and electric furnaces can require a 200-amp upgrade — $1,300–$2,500 per HomeGuide’s panel guide (its oldest figure here, from late 2024 — confirm locally).^[4]
Permits: $50–$500 per Angi; HomeGuide puts a with-ductwork permit at $250–$1,500.^[1][2]
Zoning the system (separate temperature areas) adds $2,000–$6,500.^[2]
The federal heat-pump tax credit is GONE for 2026 installations: ENERGY STAR’s own language limits the 30%/$2,000 credit (25C) to products “purchased and installed between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2025.” A 2026 bid that discounts itself with that credit is quoting a program that ended — ask what replaces it locally (utility rebates often still exist).^[9]

How to find out what YOUR system costs

A comparable HVAC bid names the tonnage from an actual load calculation (ask for the “Manual J” — square footage alone oversizes systems), the exact model and SEER/AFUE tier, the ductwork scope in feet and material, the electrical work if any, and who pulls the permit. Two bids that differ by $4,000 usually differ on tier and duct scope, not on margin.

Describe the house once on Getstimate — square footage, current system type, what’s failing — and compare line-itemed proposals from local HVAC pros side by side, free and private.

Common questions

How much does a new HVAC system cost for a 2,000 sq ft house?

About $6,000–$12,000 at HomeGuide’s published $3–$6 per square foot, assuming the ductwork stays. Add new or replaced ductwork and the totals move toward the $7,000–$16,000 with-ductwork range.

Is it cheaper to replace just the AC?

Yes — a central AC alone runs $3,900–$7,900 versus $5,000–$12,500 for the full system. But if the furnace is near end-of-life too, pros often price the combo lower than two separate visits; ask for both numbers.

Is the federal heat pump tax credit still available in 2026?

No. The 25C credit (30% up to $2,000) applied to systems purchased and installed between January 1, 2023 and December 31, 2025, per ENERGY STAR — 2026 installations don’t qualify. Utility and state rebates may still apply; ask your bidder to name the specific program.

Why is the dealer’s quote so much higher than these averages?

Usually efficiency tier and brand: one manufacturer’s own guide spans $6,568 to $13,669 for the same-size AC depending on tier, and manufacturer pricing runs above marketplace databases across the board. Ask each bidder to quote a base tier and a premium tier so you can see the gap on your own house.

These figures are published national averages and ranges — context for planning, not a quote. Your project's real cost depends on your area, the site, materials, and scope, and the only way to know it is estimates from pros looking at yourproject. That's what Getstimate is for, and it's free.

Sources

Angi — How Much Does HVAC Replacement Cost? — national average and range, per-component figures, labor, permits, and SEER-step costs; page updated August 3, 2026 (accessed August 19, 2026). Angi and HomeAdvisor share one dataset, and This Old House states its HVAC figures are sourced from Angi — the family is cited once.
HomeGuide — How Much Does a New HVAC System Cost? — independent averages, per-square-foot and tonnage tables, labor rates, ductwork, permits, zoning; written August 27, 2025, fact-checked (accessed August 19, 2026).
HomeGuide — Ductless Mini-Split AC Cost — per-zone installed pricing; written October 8, 2025 (accessed August 19, 2026).
HomeGuide — Cost to Replace an Electrical Panel — 200-amp upgrade figure; written December 30, 2024 — the oldest figure cited on this page (accessed August 19, 2026).
Fixr — Air Conditioner Installation Cost — independent central-AC average and tonnage ranges; updated January 28, 2026 (accessed August 19, 2026).
Fixr — Ductwork Installation Cost — whole-house sheet-metal ductwork average and per-linear-foot rates; updated August 29, 2025 (accessed August 19, 2026).
Trane — 2026 HVAC Replacement Cost Guide — manufacturer’s own national installed ranges by efficiency tier (accessed August 19, 2026). Excludes accessories; a manufacturer source — read as brand pricing.
Carrier — How Much Does a Heat Pump Cost? — manufacturer-quoted 2026 heat-pump installed range (accessed August 19, 2026).
ENERGY STAR — Air-Source Heat Pump Tax Credit — 25C credit terms and effective dates — January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2025 (accessed August 19, 2026); expiry corroborated by This Old House, June 12, 2026.